U.S. Officials Warn of Military Escalation Against the Kurds and Signal Possible Reimposition of Caesar Sanctions

Senior officials in the United States have expressed concern over the possibility of a new Syrian military operation against the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), warning that any escalation could expand to include U.S.-backed forces, potentially leading to destabilization in Syria.

The Wall Street Journal quoted two U.S. officials as saying that U.S. intelligence agencies have assessed that the head of the transitional government, Ahmed al-Sharaa, is planning a large-scale, multi-front military operation, with the support of the Turkish army, targeting SDF forces in the eastern Aleppo countryside, with the possibility of extending across the Euphrates River into northeastern Syria.

The newspaper noted that such an attack could lead to an expansion of fighting to areas where the majority of U.S. forces are deployed, at a time when relations between the SDF and government forces are witnessing increasing tension.

These developments come after an attack carried out ten days ago by mercenaries of the transitional government on Kurdish neighborhoods in the city of Aleppo. In a related context, the commander of the Syrian Democratic Forces, General Mazloum Abdi, announced yesterday evening the withdrawal of his forces from the cities of Deir Hafir and Maskanah east of Aleppo, a move he described as a goodwill gesture to complete the integration process and adhere to the provisions of the March 10 agreement, a decision that was welcomed by the Syrian Ministry of Defense.

U.S. lawmakers and military officials have expressed fears that an expansion of the fighting into northeastern Syria could lead to the withdrawal of Kurdish fighters from guarding detention centers holding hundreds of members of the Islamic State organization (ISIS), which could open the door to the escape of large numbers of prisoners.

According to the newspaper, U.S. intelligence agencies are discussing the scope of the potential operation. Some officials believe that Damascus may limit the operations to Aleppo province, while others think that the plan includes broader military movements from the west toward the Euphrates River and from the south starting at the border with Turkey. One official added that intelligence estimates indicate that al-Sharaa has already approved the implementation of the broader operation.

In an attempt to contain the escalation, the U.S. President’s Special Envoy to Syria, Tom Barrack, and the Commander of U.S. Central Command, Admiral Brad Cooper, are maintaining daily contacts with the relevant parties. U.S. Vice President J.D. Vance also held a call with the head of the transitional government, during which he urged him to resolve disputes with the Kurds, according to an informed source.

A U.S. official indicated that Washington has signaled the possibility of reimposing Caesar Act sanctions on the Syrian government if Damascus moves forward with implementing a large-scale military operation against SDF forces.